Disclosure – Information Deemed Reliable, but Not Guaranteed. The information came from MIBOR’s (Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors) BLC (Broker Listing Cooperative).
Years ago I use to say
80 percent of the houses sold in Pike Township were under $150,000. Today, the numbers have changed. 80 percent of the houses sold in Pike Township are under $307,500. Years ago it was common to see houses on the market for 60 to 90 days. Now, the average this year is 9.42 days.
Interpreting the chart
By watching the bars in certain categories, you can spot when the market changed. For instance, in 2016 the under $50,000 category had 67 homes. In the first half of this year, there were none.
In the $50,000 to $99,999 category, in 2016 there were 311 houses/condos sold. In the first half of this year, there were only 6.
The decline of $100,000 to $149,999 houses/condos is the same. 466 in 2016 to 57 so far this year.
At the same time houses/condos from $150,000 to $199,999 and $200,000 to $249,999 rocketed upward.
Why the changes?
The mix of houses/condos sold has been the same. The new builds in Pike during the 1990s and early 2000s have slowed down to a crawl. Mostly because there is no place to build that would suit builders and residents in certain areas. It comes down to supply and demand. I can remember when there were over 1,000 houses/condos on the market in Pike. This morning there are only 48. Because of this, prices have skyrocketed. Multiple offers and bidding wars have been the norm.
Watch the shift
In 2016 the majority of houses/condos sold were between $0 and $199,000. Today the majority is between $150,000 and $299,999. The average price this year is $260,000 with the median price at $235,000. The top category in 2016 was $100,000 to $149,999. This year it is $200,000 to $249,000.
Typically in a normal market, you see very few high-priced (over $500,000) houses on the market. They may take anywhere from 90 days to 2 years to sell. Last year there were 59 with average days on the market of 48 days.
26% of houses/condos sold so far in the first half of 2022 were cash sales. The average in the past 6 years has been around 20%. In a normal market, this usually runs about 10%. There is a saying in the trade “Cash is King”. Why? Because with a cash sale, you can close within 10 days. There are fewer costs to the buyer since there is no loan. Sellers would generally take less than the list price if it was a cash sale. In my experience, I don’t find this to be true unless the cash offer is over the list price. Usually, investors will rarely do this. In this bidding wars market, loan offers come in over list price. The challenge becomes the appraisal. The lender will only lend up to the appraisal amount. If the buyer has offered over the appraisal amount, will the seller lower the price to the appraisal amount? The difference between the appraisal amount and the offer price is known as the appraisal gap. Some sellers will insist that they want the offer price even though it did not appraise. That means that the buyer has to come up with the difference in cash. That can lead to new challenges for the seller.
With interest rates now in the 5’s, buyers are getting priced out of the market in terms of higher loan payments. Pike inventory (houses on the market) has increased this year. Last year it was around 20 to 25. Right now it is about twice that.
A balanced market (not a buyers market or sellers market) is usually 6 months of sales. We would need 500 to 600 homes/condos on the market to reach that goal.
What does iBuyer stand for?
(Instant BUYER) A real estate company that buys homes from sellers who sign up online. After receiving a description of the property, the iBuyer makes an offer to the seller within a couple of days…
Metropolitan Indianapolis got hit with iBuyers this year.
Their business plan demands that market prices will rise. They will buy your house close to market value, then turn around and sell it at above-market values. This works in the current seller’s market because prices are rising so fast that when they sell it, their above-market price will be normal market value by then.
The advantage? It works in some cases. If the owner got transferred and needed to sell their house quickly or if their company paid for the costs of the sale. Maybe it is an estate and the beneficiaries were more concerned about getting rid of it quickly and not so much about the money.
The disadvantages? Money! You will be charged 2 to 3 times what a traditional real estate sale would cost. You won’t pay commission fees BUT you may pay experience fees, repair fees, a 5% service fee, and market risk or holding fee. In total, these fees can add up to between 10 to 15 percent of the selling price for the seller.
This works in the current market. What happens when the market flattens out or drops? It won’t work. The iBuyer can’t make money when the market is flat or dropping. Their whole business plan is based on prices rising.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming year.
Typically price reductions are made when the house for sale is not sold in a market-average amount of time. Twenty years ago the average amount of time on the market was close to 90 days. Today the average is around 10 days. During this “seller’s market” there has been no need to reduce prices since the demand is much greater than the supply and because prices are rising. You can see this in the chart;
This year I think we have hit bottom with price reductions. With mortgage rates around 6 percent, buyers are dropping out of the market because now they can not afford to get a loan for the average-priced house. That usually means that sellers might lower the price of their house in order to sell.
It is interesting to see what has happened this year;
Price reductions are just one of many indicators that Realtors look for to forecast a changing market.
Please note – Information is taken from MIBOR’s (Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors) BLC (Broker Listing Cooperative). Information Deemed Reliable, but Not Guaranteed
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