Pike Township Real Estate Price Study

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Disclosure – Information Deemed Reliable, but Not Guaranteed. The information came from MIBOR’s (Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors) BLC (Broker Listing Cooperative).

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Years ago I use to say

80 percent of the houses sold in Pike Township were under $150,000. Today, the numbers have changed. 80 percent of the houses sold in Pike Township are under $307,500. Years ago it was common to see houses on the market for 60 to 90 days. Now, the average this year is 9.42 days.

Interpreting the chart

By watching the bars in certain categories, you can spot when the market changed. For instance, in 2016 the under $50,000 category had 67 homes. In the first half of this year, there were none.

In the $50,000 to $99,999 category, in 2016 there were 311 houses/condos sold. In the first half of this year, there were only 6.

The decline of $100,000 to $149,999 houses/condos is the same. 466 in 2016 to 57 so far this year.

At the same time houses/condos from $150,000 to $199,999 and $200,000 to $249,999 rocketed upward.

Why the changes?

The mix of houses/condos sold has been the same. The new builds in Pike during the 1990s and early 2000s have slowed down to a crawl. Mostly because there is no place to build that would suit builders and residents in certain areas. It comes down to supply and demand. I can remember when there were over 1,000 houses/condos on the market in Pike. This morning there are only 48. Because of this, prices have skyrocketed. Multiple offers and bidding wars have been the norm.

Watch the shift

In 2016 the majority of houses/condos sold were between $0 and $199,000. Today the majority is between $150,000 and $299,999. The average price this year is $260,000 with the median price at $235,000. The top category in 2016 was $100,000 to $149,999. This year it is $200,000 to $249,000.

Misc…

Typically in a normal market, you see very few high-priced (over $500,000) houses on the market. They may take anywhere from 90 days to 2 years to sell. Last year there were 59 with average days on the market of 48 days.

26% of houses/condos sold so far in the first half of 2022 were cash sales. The average in the past 6 years has been around 20%. In a normal market, this usually runs about 10%. There is a saying in the trade “Cash is King”. Why? Because with a cash sale, you can close within 10 days. There are fewer costs to the buyer since there is no loan. Sellers would generally take less than the list price if it was a cash sale. In my experience, I don’t find this to be true unless the cash offer is over the list price. Usually, investors will rarely do this. In this bidding wars market, loan offers come in over list price. The challenge becomes the appraisal. The lender will only lend up to the appraisal amount. If the buyer has offered over the appraisal amount, will the seller lower the price to the appraisal amount? The difference between the appraisal amount and the offer price is known as the appraisal gap. Some sellers will insist that they want the offer price even though it did not appraise. That means that the buyer has to come up with the difference in cash. That can lead to new challenges for the seller.

With interest rates now in the 5’s, buyers are getting priced out of the market in terms of higher loan payments. Pike inventory (houses on the market) has increased this year. Last year it was around 20 to 25. Right now it is about twice that.

A balanced market (not a buyers market or sellers market) is usually 6 months of sales. We would need 500 to 600 homes/condos on the market to reach that goal.

Tim

Could This Be The End For ibuyers?

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What does iBuyer stand for?
Instant BUYER
(Instant BUYER) A real estate company that buys homes from sellers who sign up online. After receiving a description of the property, the iBuyer makes an offer to the seller within a couple of days…

Metropolitan Indianapolis got hit with iBuyers this year.

This chart represents when the iBuyer sells the property they just bought.
This chart only represents the top 2 and most popular iBuyers in the MIBOR area. Information taken from MIBOR’s (Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors) BLC (Broker Listing Cooperative). Information Deemed Reliable, but not Guaranteed

Their business plan demands that market prices will rise. They will buy your house close to market value, then turn around and sell it at above-market values. This works in the current seller’s market because prices are rising so fast that when they sell it, their above-market price will be normal market value by then.

The advantage? It works in some cases. If the owner got transferred and needed to sell their house quickly or if their company paid for the costs of the sale. Maybe it is an estate and the beneficiaries were more concerned about getting rid of it quickly and not so much about the money.

The disadvantages? Money! You will be charged 2 to 3 times what a traditional real estate sale would cost. You won’t pay commission fees BUT you may pay experience fees, repair fees, a 5% service fee, and market risk or holding fee. In total, these fees can add up to between 10 to 15 percent of the selling price for the seller.

This works in the current market. What happens when the market flattens out or drops? It won’t work. The iBuyer can’t make money when the market is flat or dropping. Their whole business plan is based on prices rising.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming year.

Price Reductions Could Be On The Rise

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Typically price reductions are made when the house for sale is not sold in a market-average amount of time. Twenty years ago the average amount of time on the market was close to 90 days. Today the average is around 10 days. During this “seller’s market” there has been no need to reduce prices since the demand is much greater than the supply and because prices are rising. You can see this in the chart;

This year I think we have hit bottom with price reductions. With mortgage rates around 6 percent, buyers are dropping out of the market because now they can not afford to get a loan for the average-priced house. That usually means that sellers might lower the price of their house in order to sell.

It is interesting to see what has happened this year;

Price reductions are just one of many indicators that Realtors look for to forecast a changing market.

Please note – Information is taken from MIBOR’s (Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors) BLC (Broker Listing Cooperative). Information Deemed Reliable, but Not Guaranteed

A Tale Of A Sale

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For the past 5 years, I have had the privilege of working with a bankruptcy trustee. What does that mean? A bankruptcy trustee is assigned to someone who is going through bankruptcy. The trustee decides what happens to all of the person’s assets. This could include selling their house. It all depends on how much equity they have in their house, the house market value, and if the trustee can pay off the mortgage, and other circumstances.

The trustee gives me an address and I do research on the property. This usually includes getting preliminary title work. This shows all the liens on the property. I have not seen the interior of the house so I base my findings on the house being in marketable condition. In some cases, it is far from it. I tell the trustee what I think the house is worth on the market today. The trustee decides if he can sell the house and at least break even.

Recently, he gave me an address that I did research on. A 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch in a very popular neighborhood. Houses were selling in a day or two after being listed and at premium prices. After doing my research, I came to the conclusion that it was likely to be worth between $175,000 and $190,000. If that were the case, there was a lot of equity in the house. The trustee told me to list it.

I do not list a house without seeing the insides. The last time I listed a house without seeing the insides, it turned out to be a meth house. I ended up having to lower the price by 50 percent.

I ended up talking to the owner’s attorney. The attorney gave me the phone number of the owner. He also informed me that the owner’s brother had the power of attorney over the owner and that the owner could be considered to be a hoarder but he had never seen the house.

I find that the definition of “hoarder” is very broad, based on who you ask. The definition I am familiar with is based on the TV show Hoarders which I have seen in several episodes. I have also been told houses were owned by hoarders but come to find out that they were just very cluttered.

I called and talked to the owner about getting in to see the house. The owner seemed very cooperative and we arranged a time when I could see the house. Shortly after that call, I get a call from the brother’s wife. She gave me a lot of information about the house. She said that she and the brother had started to empty the house. They filled two 30 yard dumpsters of stuff and then gave up.

Here is a picture of a 30-yard dumpster;

At this point I did not know what to expect. Was this the next production set for the TV show Hoarders or was this just a cluttered house?

I met the brother and his wife at the house the day I was to tour. After introductions and some stories of their experience, we went inside the house and they introduced me to the owner.

I toured the house, took room measurements and pictures. It was very cluttered but I did not consider it a hoarder’s house. Of course, I never saw it before they pulled out 2 dumpsters worth of stuff.

I was told that the owner was only taking her clothes and personal effects out of the house and everything else would stay and convey to the buyers. That meant that the buyers would have to clear the house of any unwanted items. A huge job that might take weeks.

Other than the clutter, the 20-year-old house was in pretty good shape. A popular floor plan that would look much bigger when all the “stuff” was removed. The carpet could be cleaned or replaced and some paint touch-up was needed. My only other concern was that the back deck needed work. Other than that, from what I could see, little needed to be done. I knew that pricing it between $175,000 and $190,000 was out. I told the trustee that we needed to price it at $149,500. He agreed.

The owner said that she only wanted showings between the hours of 11:00 AM and 6:00 PM. Because of the limitations, I set it up for only 30-minute showings and no overlapping because of COVID. That meant that at max, only 14 showings a day. I thought that would work.

Two days later, after getting all the legal documents signed, I got it listed. I went to the house to put up a For Sale sign. As soon as I put up the sign, a neighbor came running out and took a picture of it. I guess he wanted the phone numbers. He never approached me.

Once I got back to the office and entered the listing, showing requests started pouring in. After a couple of hours, we had booked showings for the next 2 days and could not book any others until the third day. I started getting calls, emails, and texts from Realtors asking me why they could not get a showing immediately. After spending the rest of the day responding to all the communications, purchase agreements started pouring in.

On the first day, I got 29 offers. Some were from out of state. 78% were cash offers. (There must be a lot of cash out there) 80% of the offers were above list price. Some of the offers were sight unseen. (They had never seen the interior of the house first hand)

I had Realtors calling me after sending me an offer asking if they were the highest offer. If I said no, they would send me a higher offer. Turns out that the two highest bidders were battling it out.

Fortunately, the trustee picked an offer at the end of the first day. The first day pushed me to the max. After making the listing pending, I still got 2 more offers the next day for a total of 31.

Turns out that he picked a cash offer 12% above the list price. Nice!

I have always had two theories in this market about cash sales and pricing.

• It used to be that cash sales were king. You could close must faster. You did not have to wait for a lender to decide, generally no appraisals, and a lot of times no inspections. Sellers would always prefer cash sales even if they were a little lower than the list price. Now, cash sales don’t mean a thing unless they are higher than the list price.

The National Association of Realtors says that the average amount of offers per listing is 5. In this fast-paced market, you are bound to get lender offers above the list price. The housing inventory is so low that mortgage buyers are struggling to get a house. They will naturally bid above the list price to get the house and hope that it will appraise which leads me to my other theory.

• Pricing…Normally Realtors try their best to price a home at current market value. The seller will get mortgage offers above the list price and accept one. Now comes the appraisal. If it does not appraise for the offered price, then the buyer has to come up with the difference. This is called the appraisal gape. If the buyer does not have the difference in cash to meet the offered price, then they may lose the house unless the seller reduces the price of the house to match the appraisal. My theory is that if you price the house under market value, you will get offers over the list price and still have it appraise. You will also get more offers.

Real estate is a tricky business. Every sale is different with its own set of circumstances.

Summary of the sale:
• 24 out of 31 offers were cash offers
• 25 out of 31 offers were above list price, 2 at the list, and 4 below list
• 21 out of 31 offers were sight-unseen offers
• 6 buyers made multiple offers each higher than the last
• One Realtor made an offer
• Two buyers made 4 offers each. They were bidding against each other
• One offer from Texas, one from Delaware, one from California, and one from South Carolina
• 45 scheduled showings over 3 days
• Sold in one day – future scheduled showings were canceled

It is a crazy market out there!

Tim Lord

Pike 2021 Fun Facts

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In 2017 the average house price in Pike was $155,946. In 2021 the average house price was $234,363. A gain of over 50%. Great investment.

In 2021 348 of the 1255 (28%) houses sold in Pike were cash transactions. That is equivalent to about 70 million dollars. There is a lot of cash out there.

14% of the houses sold were financed with FHA (Federal Housing Administration) insured loans. The benefit of an FHA loan is that there is a lower down payment of 3.5 percent and lower credit scores to get the loan. The challenge is that you have to have PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance). FHA mortgage insurance varies from 0.45% to 1.05% of the loan amount. This gets added to your monthly payment. This number has been steadily dropping since 2016 when there was almost 33 percent of the houses sold using FHA loans. Why? Conventional lenders are getting more competitive and reducing their downpayment percents.

12 Tips To Win a Bid In This Competitive Market

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According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, “For every listing there are 5.1 offers. Half of the homes are being sold above list price.”

It takes some real thought and desires to win in a bidding war. Knowing your options is key. There are many things that you can do to make your offer stand out.

1.) First realize that if you are getting a mortgage, the lender will only allow the loan amount to be up to the appraised amount. That means that if you offer more than the appraised amount, you will have to come up with the difference. If you have the extra cash, then this should not be a problem. If you don’t, then you could negotiate and see if the owner would take the appraised amount. Another solution would be to offer a price but then in the “Further Conditions” in the Purchase Agreement, write something like “if the home appraises under offer price, then the buyer will pay up to appraised amount”. This would eliminate any question as to what you would be willing to pay and eliminate negotiations after appraisal.

2.) Don’t request any appliances even if the seller is willing to leave them. This would show the seller that you are willing to buy the house without the appliances. The seller might like the fact that they could take some/all appliances with them.

3.) The earnest money was designed to show the seller how interested you were in buying the house. The bigger the earnest money, the more you want the house. It also shows that you are willing to put skin in the game. Larger amounts of earnest money could make a difference.

4.) How you finance the home and what your down payment is can be critical. Basically, there are 3 types of loans. FHA, insured conventional and conventional. If you have a down payment of less than 20 percent, then the lender will add a Private Mortgage Insurance policy to the loan. FHA appraisals are always a little more demanding. This could be a little more challenging for the seller if their home is not up to par. Bigger down payments do have one advantage when it comes to appraisals. Example: Buyer offers $200,000 on a house. They put down 10 percent as a down payment. Now house only has to appraise for $180,000 because that is all the loan would have to be. This could be a big concern for sellers if the house does not appraise. Having a bigger down payment could give the seller some relief.

5.) Don’t ask the seller for any closing costs. This might be the only way a buyer could afford the house but you are taking money out of the seller’s pocket.

6.) Work with the seller on a closing date. A buyer’s agent could call the listing agent and ask what would work best for the seller. The seller might need time to close on their next house or might want to close as soon as possible.

7.) Traditionally the closing fee (the fee charged to have the table closing by the title company) is split between the buyer and seller. The fee usually is around a total of $300 to $400. The seller will pay more attention and appreciate the offer if the buyer pays the sellers half of the fee.

8.) In this market, possession of the new property can make or break a deal. Traditionally, possession was always at closing. Now, giving the seller days, weeks, or a month to vacate the house has become more of the norm. This protects the seller from having to move out before closing. It is possible (and happens many times) that the buyer can’t get the loan but does not find out until a day or two before closing. Maybe the seller has bought a new house and has moved into it. Now the seller has to face two mortgages until they can find a new buyer for the old house. Giving the seller extra time to vacate is a huge plus.

9.) Either waving the right to have a home inspection, taking the property as-is, or using the “AS IS” ADDENDUM TO PURCHASE AGREEMENT is a benefit to the seller. This allows the buyer to have an inspection, terminate the transaction if any undisclosed defects were found in the inspection. The seller has no obligation whatsoever to correct the defects found in the inspection. This protects the seller from any inspection repair expense. Normally this would work well if the house is in good condition and has no defects and needs no repairs.

10.) Don’t ask the seller to pay for a home warranty for the buyer. This is an added expense for the seller. The buyer can order and pay for a home warranty any time after the closing for the same price.

11.) The buyer could pay for the seller’s title insurance policy. This cost could vary based on the price of the house. This could mean a lot to the seller.

12.) Because Indiana property taxes are paid in arrears, the bills you get this year in May and November pay for the first 6 months of last year and the last 6 months of last year. The seller owes the buyer a credit at closing based on what the last payment covered to the closing date. The title company prorates it and gives the buyer a credit and the seller a debit on the closing statement. Otherwise, the buyer would be paying the seller’s property taxes from their escrowed mortgage payments. The buyer could relinquish the credit or part of it which would save the seller some money. These tips are ways to influence the seller in a multiple offer situation. The whole idea is to reduce the seller’s costs and inconvenience. The more tips you can use the more likely you are to get the seller’s attention and maybe win the bidding war. When I represent the seller in a multiple offer situation, I start an Excel spreadsheet with all the variable contingencies. This makes it easier for the seller and me to decide which the best offers are. The last multiple offers I did this to had 9 offers. The one before that had 15 offers. It’s a seller’s market.

DISCLOSURE – You should be careful about waiving the inspection. As a licensed Real Estate Agent, we have a fiduciary responsibility to educate our buyers of the importance and benefits of an inspection. And, as a Realtor, the Code of Ethics states that we make sure that any known issues are still disclosed. There are benefits and liabilities to each of these above tips. Make sure you understand them before you use them.

Tim Lord